Pax Sinica:Geopolitics and Economics of China’s Ascendance



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The book confronts the popular conjecture of a Pax Sinica emerging to replace Pax Americana in the wake of global financial crisis. It argues that by virtue of its overwhelming economic, technological and military clout, US hegemony will continue to prevail, though increasingly less coherently, as China's ascendance as a global power accelerates. The argument is underpinned with analysis of different junctures in China's trajectory towards the status of economic giant, from the tacit creation of the 'Greater China' growth triangle and ordeal of the Asian Financial Crisis, through the breakthrough with China’s membership in the WTO and the subsequent large-scale realignment of productive forces in the Asia Pacific region. A chronological approach is combined with topical analysis, focusing in particular on the interplay between economic imperatives and geopolitical dynamics.

Taken together, the book provides a highly refreshing and coherent perspective for looking at China arising as a dominant Asia-Pacific power with significant global implications. As an interdisciplinary study it will appeal to scholars and academics, as well as businessmen and government policy-makers interested in Asian and global affairs; and especially to students of economics, politics, international business and globalization studies

作者簡介

Y. Y. Kueh is a Hong Kong-based China expert. He taught at The Chinese University of Hong Kong for over two decades; served as Founding Director of Centre for Chinese Political Economy at Macquarie University, Sydney; and retired from Lingnan University, Hong Kong, as Chair Professor of Economics and Dean of Social Science. Currently, he is Senior College Tutor (Honorary), New Asia College, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

  • 出版社:香港大學出版社

    新功能介紹
  • 出版日期:2012/11/16
  • 語言:英文


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美國總統川普在國會發表國情咨文,點名中國挑戰美國利益與價值;同時,白宮國安團隊規畫將由美國自建5G網路系統,以防範中國監聽威脅;此外,中情局長龐皮歐指出,中國派間諜滲透美國暗中發展影響力,凸顯川普政府依據新《國家安全戰略》與《國防戰略》,把中國視為頭號「戰略競爭對手」趨勢。



不過,中美兩國政府經過1年多的磨合期,已經發展出「1+4+1」的互動機制,包括領導人直接對話溝通、4個功能性定期對話平台,以及軍事交流與互信機制。兩國應善用此平台,讓彼此戰略利益矛盾加劇之際,仍能維持可控局面。

四個定期對話平台

川普執政團隊準備推動遏制中國大戰略,可能會在3月冬奧後對北韓採取強勢行動,也可能再度挑釁「一個中國」政策,把台灣推上火線。川普還可能在南海與南亞挑起矛盾,刺激印太各國軍備競賽,動搖經濟穩定發展基礎,把印太地區資金與人才加速趕到美國。

川普政府企圖牽制中國勢力擴張,鞏固美國利益與優勢地位,進而在經貿、投資領域推出雙邊協商條件,讓中國在內的亞太國家,綜合考量安全與經貿利益,繼續接受美國領導。但中國綜合國力已經崛起,經貿、外交與軍事工具箱有足夠能量,可以營造新國際經貿與安全戰略格局。當前多數國家對川普政府穩定度與政策持續性有疑慮,認為配合美國跟中國對抗,風險高而且未必有利,也普遍採取平衡戰略,希望在中、美間左右逢源。

同時,美國正面臨國防預算不穩定嚴峻問題,現有戰力維持每況愈下。川普雖強調要大幅增加國防預算,但除非國會同意廢除《預算控制法》,否則川普的強軍戰略根本無法落實。此外,美國的盟國是否願意與中國對抗,現在連美國都沒有把握。川普政府要求日、韓、澳洲、印度等國堅定站在美國這一邊,已經讓這些國家備感壓力,甚至還擔心有朝一日被美國出賣,川普政府又要求增加對美軍購,更成為各國內政新難題。

川普在「世界經濟論壇」釋出重返《跨太平洋夥伴協定》(TPP)訊號,對亞太經貿格局與中美競合關係投下新變數。川普政府準備重返TPP,若刻意強調「對抗中國」主軸,只會增加談判困難複雜程度,並讓亞太國家未蒙其利先受其害。因為美中兩國若走上對抗道路,甚至爆發貿易戰或軍事衝突,必定成為亞太地區災難。

川普政府曾於2017年底通知WTO,拒絕承認中國「市場經濟」地位,還對中國鋁業進行反傾銷與反補貼調查,並啟動301條款對北京強迫美國企業技術轉移,竊取智慧財產權等展開大規模調查,準備對中國出口產品採取高關稅政策。川普或許吃定中國出口商品依賴美國市場,超過美國商品對中國市場的依賴,美中爆發貿易戰,中國受到的損失將較美國更大。但許多美國跨國企業在中國布局的價值鏈已成形,如果川普政府對中國發動貿易戰,同樣會傷害到美國企業的利益,而且美國消費者也將身受其害。

和戰關鍵十字路口

當川普把中國視為「戰略競爭對手」,北京則保持冷靜並倡議「互利共贏」,堅持中國將有所作為但不與美國為敵,不會想要取代美國,也不會走「強國必霸」老路。習近平日前與川普通話再度強調,「合作是中美關係唯一正確的選擇」,將以實際行動推進經濟全球化,並加速開放大陸市場。當中美競合關係處在「和、戰」關鍵十字路口時,兩國應超越制度差異與「冷戰舊思維」,繼續做大共同利益蛋糕,並善用「1+4+1」溝通平台,有效管控分歧,以防範兩國走向對抗。(作者為國家政策研究基金會國安組顧問)

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